Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1977 IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 932 IAH 13:14 → BOS 18:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1977 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	BOS 12:28	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 2393 United Flight history →	IAH 09:50	BOS 14:48	9%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 1226 United	IAH 12:28	BOS 17:41	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 521 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	BOS 23:30	13%	3%	0.6%	68%
UA 2296 United	IAH 18:11	BOS 23:16	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 932 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:14	BOS 18:10	15%	6%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 47m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	47m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 30m	93%	86%
United Details →	IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402	55m Newark	EWR 15:22 → BOS 16:38UA 1536	5h 50m	85%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON