tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via SFO, leaving 12:43, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:43 → SFO 15:01UA 2611 3h 50m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → BUR 20:22UA 2001 9h 39m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 28m 99% 89%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:51 → LAS 08:21F9 1489 2h 51m Las Vegas LAS 11:12 → BUR 12:41F9 4107 7h 50m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → BUR 11:58AA 1208 7h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 92% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 15m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 57m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 45m Denver DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411 7h 58m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON