Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1720 at 12:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1720 IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	7%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 592 United	IAH 16:53	BWI 21:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	24%	6%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON