tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:04, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 7h 05m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → BZN 11:04AA 952 7h 02m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 3h 07m Denver DEN 11:59 → BZN 13:48UA 741 7h 28m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406 7h 45m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106 2h 09m Chicago ORD 11:16 → BZN 13:40AA 1080 8h 27m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 01m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON