Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 6295 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 12:35	CHS 16:12	12%	5%	1.8%	80%
UA 2237 United	IAH 18:48	CHS 22:34	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:33UA 1549	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 13:13 → CHS 15:10UA 1952	6h 45m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → CHS 11:31DL 1437	4h 51m	99%	90%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 03m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003	8h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	5h 42m	98%	88%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:58 → CHS 14:21UA 2631	8h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	5h 12m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59DL 3179	5h 50m	98%	86%
United Details →	IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36UA 1797	1h 34m Newark	EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760	7h 15m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON