Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 4788 SkyWest	IAH 12:08	CMH 15:50	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2086 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	CMH 23:59	18%	4%	0.5%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 15:15 → DTW 19:05DL 1307	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic	7h 41m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	5h 08m	99%	92%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 48m Denver	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	8h 13m	99%	90%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 10:39 → CMH 13:03UA 2063	6h 59m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → CMH 16:07DL 2892	5h 26m	97%	89%
United Details →	IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402	3h 30m Newark	EWR 17:57 → CMH 19:59UA 3545 · flown by Republic	9h 11m	100%	89%
United Details →	IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 14:18 → CMH 16:53UA 1069	7h 48m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON