Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2850 IAH 12:40 → CVG 16:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2069 IAH 19:55 → CVG 23:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2850 United	IAH 12:40	CVG 16:21	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 2610 Alaska	IAH 23:27	CVG 02:53	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2069 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	CVG 23:38	14%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 6312 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:30	CVG 10:59	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON