Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 512 IAH 07:37 → DCA 11:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OH 5589 IAH 16:42 → DCA 20:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:37	DCA 11:50	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:00	DCA 11:23	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	10%	3%	0.5%	75%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	11%	3%	0.6%	70%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 11:37	DCA 15:55	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	13%	4%	0.5%	69%
UA 235 United	IAH 16:50	DCA 21:05	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	14%	4%	0.6%	66%
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 16:42	DCA 20:59	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON