Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2551 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2551 IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5576 IAH 16:15 → DFW 17:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	6%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 06:59	DFW 08:31	8%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:45	DFW 23:05	11%	4%	0.6%	62%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 12:13	DFW 13:37	11%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 08:54	DFW 10:08	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	13%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	IAH 12:11	DFW 13:31	13%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:01	DFW 15:24	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	DFW 21:27	15%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 1599 United	IAH 16:53	DFW 18:13	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	IAH 19:01	DFW 20:12	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:15	DFW 17:28	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON