tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1780 United Flight history → IAH 20:12 DSM 22:35 14% 3% 0.6% 77%
UA 6166 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 11:55 DSM 14:10 16% 5% 1.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 7h 54m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 05m Denver DEN 09:52 → DSM 12:47UA 596 7h 32m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 51m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 2h 43m Chicago ORD 13:44 → DSM 15:03UA 1658 6h 58m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 11m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 22m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 6h 43m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 20m Chicago ORD 09:19 → DSM 10:26UA 466 5h 22m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124 3h 51m Chicago ORD 16:20 → DSM 17:41UA 2836 8h 06m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON