Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1389 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1389 IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1958 IAH 16:10 → DTW 20:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1389 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:30	DTW 09:18	3%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	IAH 11:32	DTW 15:20	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	IAH 15:15	DTW 19:05	9%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 1529 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:55	DTW 23:44	12%	3%	0.6%	70%
UA 2755 United	IAH 19:00	DTW 23:01	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1958 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:10	DTW 20:14	18%	4%	0.7%	69%
UA 4064 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:45	DTW 13:42	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
UA 6131 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 13:58	DTW 17:59	11%	3%	0.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON