Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2261 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 07:58 → FLL 11:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 07:58	FLL 11:55	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:18	FLL 14:09	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:52	FLL 15:28	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 19:39	FLL 23:25	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	16%	3%	0.7%	30%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	FLL 20:22	18%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:47	FLL 18:36	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	28%	10%	1.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON