tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YV 4060 Mesa IAH 12:25 GSP 15:50 14% 3% 0.9% no record
YV 6124 Mesa IAH 18:30 GSP 22:00 16% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Greenville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725 5h 34m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09AA 3986 · flown by Envoy 7h 07m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → GSP 14:58DL 3010 6h 58m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:46 → GSP 17:45DL 3095 7h 04m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 2h 54m Chicago ORD 13:55 → GSP 17:00UA 5403 · flown by SkyWest 7h 55m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:40 → GSP 20:39DL 3136 5h 01m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 2h 32m Newark EWR 16:59 → GSP 19:08UA 3584 · flown by Republic 8h 20m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 09:10 → CLT 12:47AA 2011 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 14:25 → GSP 15:19AA 5988 · flown by Piedmont 5h 09m 95% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON