Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1687 IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 465 IAH 19:59 → IND 23:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1687 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	IND 15:25	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 465 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	IND 23:26	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 6132 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:35	IND 20:03	25%	8%	0.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON