Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1524 IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1360 IAH 20:07 → LAS 21:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	IAH 16:59	LAS 18:40	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
F9 1489 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:51	LAS 08:21	11%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	IAH 18:39	LAS 19:57	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	IAH 20:07	LAS 21:23	13%	4%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON