Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1755 IAH 22:21 → LAX 00:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:58	LAX 07:36	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:55	LAX 16:39	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	10%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:49	LAX 20:31	11%	5%	0.7%	82%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:19	LAX 22:00	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	11%	4%	0.6%	76%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:21	LAX 00:12	15%	5%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON