Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1417 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1417 IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 334 IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1143 United	IAH 07:59	LGA 12:38	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 11:24	LGA 16:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	14%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	15%	4%	0.5%	66%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:06	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:00	LGA 18:41	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:05	LGA 21:46	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 775 United	IAH 14:39	LGA 19:27	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:27	LGA 23:02	22%	4%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	24%	5%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON