Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:21, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532	4h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:33 → LGB 21:31DL 1167	9h 10m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	IAH 06:01 → SEA 08:31AS 241	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → LGB 14:39AS 717	10h 38m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	1h 14m Seattle	SEA 18:35 → LGB 21:14AS 428	8h 36m	89%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON