Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 17%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2245 at 07:20, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 496 IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Weather 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	5%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	13%	5%	1.6%	86%
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:13	MCO 19:45	19%	9%	2.2%	66%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:47	MCO 22:26	22%	7%	1.3%	80%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:29	MCO 17:06	24%	8%	2.7%	77%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	26%	6%	1.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON