Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2144 at 05:31, 5%.

Safest bet that day AA 2144 IAH 05:31 → MIA 09:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1462 IAH 14:26 → MIA 18:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:31	MIA 09:20	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:48	MIA 11:48	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 12:46	MIA 16:20	24%	6%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:59	MIA 21:03	26%	10%	1.0%	57%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 18:25	MIA 21:57	32%	10%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:26	MIA 18:10	34%	10%	1.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON