tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4774 at 19:53, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 19:53 MKE 22:36 14% 3% 0.6% 86%
UA 6149 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 07:20 MKE 10:05 7% 3% 0.0% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 6h 13m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 6h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:29 → MKE 16:31DL 1206 6h 50m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 10m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 8h 10m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 2h 20m Newark EWR 16:47 → MKE 18:26UA 3562 · flown by Republic 8h 38m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:41 → MKE 20:41DL 2388 6h 03m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:13 → MKE 12:18AA 3193 6h 17m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:59 → MKE 11:25AA 2581 6h 23m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON