Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1818 IAH 14:43 → MSP 17:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1554 Delta	IAH 10:35	MSP 13:26	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	11%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 1516 Delta	IAH 14:45	MSP 17:37	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1872 United Flight history →	IAH 19:51	MSP 23:00	15%	5%	0.5%	77%
UA 1818 United	IAH 14:43	MSP 17:45	15%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON