Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:01, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	94%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	91%	87%
Frontier Details →	IAH 07:07 → LAS 08:30F9 1489	2h 24m Las Vegas	LAS 10:54 → OAK 12:36F9 2045	7h 29m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706	10h 08m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	IAH 06:01 → SEA 08:31AS 241	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533	10h 18m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON