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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 6h 37m 96% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 27m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 47m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:15 → ONT 09:42AA 1820 6h 40m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:59 → DFW 08:31AA 3026 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 8h 49m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:39 → ONT 11:55AA 2956 7h 53m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 19:06 → ONT 20:45UA 2478 7h 15m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891 10h 32m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON