Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2243 IAH 18:36 → ORD 21:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:54	ORD 14:43	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1517 American	IAH 08:58	ORD 11:47	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:49	ORD 16:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 10:55	ORD 13:40	13%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 13:57	ORD 16:45	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:27	ORD 18:12	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	15%	4%	0.6%	69%
F9 1882 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 11:19	ORD 14:13	15%	5%	0.9%	64%
AA 2302 American	IAH 16:48	ORD 19:32	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2786 United	IAH 16:54	ORD 19:33	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2243 American	IAH 18:36	ORD 21:21	20%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON