Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Norfolk on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 6286 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 18:14	ORF 22:31	15%	5%	1.2%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925	6h 05m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:15 → DTW 19:05DL 1307	2h 35m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	7h 17m	98%	88%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 12:14 → ORF 15:36UA 2807	8h 26m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	49m Detroit	DTW 10:07 → ORF 12:02DL 3066	5h 32m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 09m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	1h 49m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	6h 09m	95%	86%
American Details →	IAH 06:05 → CLT 09:35AA 3162	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:12 → ORF 13:34AA 1323	6h 29m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	5h 44m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON