tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 740 IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1421 IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 740 United Flight history → IAH 09:30 PDX 11:56 9% 2% 0.6% 86%
UA 1964 United Flight history → IAH 16:47 PDX 19:18 11% 3% 0.6% 82%
AS 1421 Alaska Flight history → IAH 18:19 PDX 20:50 15% 3% 0.7% 77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 18m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 6h 32m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 35m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:45 → PDX 10:40AA 2655 6h 38m 95% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON