Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3196 IAH 06:08 → PHL 10:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2486 IAH 16:12 → PHL 20:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3196 American	IAH 06:08	PHL 10:39	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2203 United Flight history →	IAH 07:22	PHL 11:39	7%	2%	0.5%	97%
AA 2427 American Flight history →	IAH 11:53	PHL 16:35	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2748 United Flight history →	IAH 12:23	PHL 17:00	10%	3%	0.5%	55%
UA 1663 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:29	12%	3%	0.5%	75%
AA 2486 American	IAH 16:12	PHL 20:49	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON