Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3750 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3750 IAH 09:04 → PHX 10:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 18:01 → PHX 19:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3750 Envoy	IAH 09:04	PHX 10:08	8%	3%	0.3%	no record
MQ 3354 Envoy	IAH 07:07	PHX 08:20	9%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:28	PHX 15:33	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1478 United	IAH 16:46	PHX 17:42	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	16%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 1259 United	IAH 18:41	PHX 19:46	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:39	PHX 15:33	18%	5%	0.8%	89%
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 18:01	PHX 19:03	25%	8%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON