Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1911 IAH 19:50 → SAN 21:18 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SAN 10:51	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2399 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	SAN 13:21	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1114 United	IAH 14:11	SAN 15:40	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2798 United	IAH 16:16	SAN 17:46	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1911 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	SAN 21:18	17%	3%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON