Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1371 IAH 09:26 → SAT 10:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2198 IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:26	SAT 10:35	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:47	SAT 16:07	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:42	SAT 19:50	18%	4%	0.6%	74%
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	SAT 21:13	19%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SAT 22:42	19%	3%	0.6%	69%
UA 6201 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:39	SAT 10:46	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
UA 6202 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:08	SAT 13:17	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON