Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2205 IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 2341 IAH 20:11 → SEA 23:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 2228 United	IAH 12:08	SEA 15:03	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:41	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	18%	4%	0.6%	67%
UA 2341 United	IAH 20:11	SEA 23:05	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	93%	77%
American Details →	IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → SEA 10:50AA 767	6h 48m	93%	75%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575	46m Denver	DEN 09:38 → SEA 11:25UA 1253	6h 05m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON