Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1845 IAH 06:28 → SFO 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1202 IAH 19:37 → SFO 21:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1845 United	IAH 06:28	SFO 08:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	9%	2%	0.6%	68%
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1134 United	IAH 17:07	SFO 19:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2611 United Flight history →	IAH 12:43	SFO 15:01	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	14%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 2607 United	IAH 18:08	SFO 20:25	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	16%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 1202 United	IAH 19:37	SFO 21:44	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216	50m Los Angeles	LAX 09:20 → SFO 10:42DL 1715	5h 32m	88%	71%
United Details →	IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674	49m Austin	AUS 20:46 → SFO 22:44UA 1204	5h 54m	83%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON