Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5765 IAH 14:28 → SHV 15:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest OO 5366 IAH 18:15 → SHV 19:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5765 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 14:28	SHV 15:41	10%	4%	0.5%	76%
OO 5368 SkyWest	IAH 20:04	SHV 21:13	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 6026 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:10	SHV 17:21	11%	4%	0.5%	74%
OO 5366 SkyWest	IAH 18:15	SHV 19:25	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON