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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52AA 2046 7h 50m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 17m Chicago ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:46UA 307 8h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 11m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256 7h 47m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:59 → DFW 08:31AA 3026 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 8h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:09 → LAX 17:30DL 1143 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420 8h 01m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216 57m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SJC 10:49DL 1380 5h 39m 93% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON