Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1583 IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2157 IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1583 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:35	SLC 09:48	7%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 2242 United Flight history →	IAH 09:54	SLC 12:27	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:01	SLC 21:15	12%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1532 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:21	SLC 16:33	12%	3%	0.5%	86%
OO 5301 SkyWest	IAH 12:24	SLC 14:35	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2157 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	SLC 22:43	14%	5%	0.5%	79%
UA 6207 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:25	SLC 16:40	20%	5%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON