tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1155 United IAH 10:05 SMF 12:00 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1148 United Flight history → IAH 20:35 SMF 22:43 12% 3% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:58 → LAX 07:36UA 417 1h 38m Los Angeles LAX 09:14 → SMF 10:50UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 20m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 05m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 47m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 43m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:29 → SMF 10:30AA 2081 7h 28m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:45 → SMF 13:17UA 2673 7h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 39m 95% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON