tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:35 am at Houston)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:41, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → SRQ 16:32DL 3115 5h 51m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → SRQ 23:22DL 2997 7h 44m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:24 → ATL 17:24DL 2709 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → SRQ 21:36DL 1057 6h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:13 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109 6h 41m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:53 → DFW 10:07AA 3598 · flown by Envoy 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:30 → SRQ 16:03AA 2679 6h 10m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 09:12 → CLT 12:50AA 2011 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 14:00 → SRQ 15:56AA 2143 5h 44m 93% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 1h 39m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 8h 29m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → IAH 17:29 → MIA 21:13AA 678 1h 41m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 30m 90% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON