Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5261 IAH 07:31 → TUL 09:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1927 IAH 20:02 → TUL 21:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5261 SkyWest	IAH 07:31	TUL 09:22	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1927 United	IAH 20:02	TUL 21:55	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 6171 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:30	TUL 18:08	0%	0%	0.0%	100%
UA 6179 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 21:42	TUL 23:15	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 6270 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	8%	0.0%	84%
UA 4239 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	4%	1.8%	84%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	TUL 20:00	23%	8%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON