Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via O'Hare, leaving 07:34, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 07:34 → ORD 10:21AA 3106	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:29AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	5h 55m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:00 → MSP 08:48DL 1050	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:16 → DTW 19:05DL 1307	3h 54m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	7h 52m	100%	84%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 51m Denver	DEN 09:38 → TVC 14:21UA 2420	8h 06m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:05 → DTW 08:49DL 1389	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 10:23 → TVC 11:34DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	81%
American Details →	IAH 06:07 → CLT 09:37AA 3162	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 10:55 → TVC 13:07AA 5575 · flown by PSA	6h 00m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON