Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2216 ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 828 ICT 13:09 → ATL 16:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2216 Delta Flight history →	ICT 05:43	ATL 08:54	3%	2%	0.2%	96%
DL 1637 Delta Flight history →	ICT 11:11	ATL 14:26	6%	2%	0.2%	85%
DL 2128 Delta Flight history →	ICT 18:32	ATL 22:00	6%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1418 Delta	ICT 18:47	ATL 22:05	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 828 Delta	ICT 13:09	ATL 16:27	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON