Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: UA 5355 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet today UA 5355 ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1472 ICT 18:43 → DEN 19:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 06:08	DEN 06:53	6%	3%	0.3%	92%
WN 4959 Southwest	ICT 07:37	DEN 08:22	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3515 Southwest	ICT 07:32	DEN 08:00	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	11%	3%	0.5%	89%
OO 5813 SkyWest	ICT 11:40	DEN 12:16	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5240 SkyWest	ICT 17:13	DEN 17:51	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4141 Southwest	ICT 19:17	DEN 19:57	19%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2082 United	ICT 09:35	DEN 10:12	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1472 Southwest	ICT 18:43	DEN 19:12	22%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON