tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:33 am at Wichita)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: AA 5104 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet today AA 5104 ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2304 ICT 16:28 → DFW 18:03 · 27% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history → ICT 05:56 DFW 07:21 6% 5% 1.0% 86%
MQ 3478 Envoy ICT 07:08 DFW 08:32 8% 3% 0.6% no record
MQ 4032 Envoy ICT 09:27 DFW 10:55 10% 3% 0.5% no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ICT 11:25 DFW 12:50 11% 2% 0.5% 83%
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ICT 19:00 DFW 20:26 14% 2% 0.9% 64%
OO 6218 SkyWest ICT 17:02 DFW 18:39 16% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 6236 SkyWest ICT 19:54 DFW 21:29 16% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 6217 SkyWest ICT 18:19 DFW 19:59 18% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 5372 American flown by PSA Flight history → ICT 14:06 DFW 15:27 18% 6% 0.8% 87%
AA 2304 American ICT 16:28 DFW 18:03 27% 6% 2.1% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON