Today: C5 4248 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet today C5 4248 ICT 06:33 → IAH 08:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4510 ICT 17:00 → IAH 18:51 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:33	IAH 08:33	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 09:00	IAH 10:55	10%	1%	0.4%	95%
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:31	IAH 17:37	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:00	IAH 18:51	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON