tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:33 am at Wichita)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1685 Southwest ICT 12:38 LAS 13:24 8% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 854 Southwest ICT 12:48 LAS 13:29 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 41m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 59m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:00 → IAH 10:55UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 25m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 9h 00m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 3h 51m Chicago ORD 13:26 → LAS 15:18UA 704 9h 53m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → LAS 11:21DL 748 7h 38m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Denver DEN 15:59 → LAS 17:02UA 2424 5h 27m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:21AA 5104 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584 5h 20m 94% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON