Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2043 ICT 05:48 → MDW 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2151 ICT 14:13 → MDW 16:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2043 Southwest	ICT 05:48	MDW 07:45	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2150 Southwest	ICT 05:07	MDW 06:59	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2044 Southwest	ICT 14:47	MDW 16:41	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2151 Southwest	ICT 14:13	MDW 16:05	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON