Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 3782 ICT 07:16 → MSP 09:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3807 ICT 15:54 → MSP 17:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3782 SkyWest	ICT 07:16	MSP 09:07	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
OO 3761 SkyWest	ICT 07:43	MSP 09:34	10%	3%	0.3%	no record
OO 3762 SkyWest	ICT 15:36	MSP 17:26	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 15:54	MSP 17:47	11%	3%	0.5%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON