Today: AA 4043 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet today AA 4043 ICT 06:44 → ORD 08:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ICT 17:58 → ORD 20:02 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:44	ORD 08:43	6%	2%	0.3%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:35	9%	3%	0.4%	86%
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:53	ORD 17:00	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
OO 6287 SkyWest	ICT 13:46	ORD 15:46	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 6283 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:50	ORD 16:01	16%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	16%	4%	0.7%	80%
OO 5230 SkyWest	ICT 18:23	ORD 20:29	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 17:58	ORD 20:02	24%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON