Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3507 ICT 06:01 → PHX 06:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6214 ICT 12:29 → PHX 13:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3507 Envoy	ICT 06:01	PHX 06:41	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3974 Envoy	ICT 06:03	PHX 06:31	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 6214 SkyWest	ICT 12:29	PHX 13:04	12%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON