tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:20 am at Wichita)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 15:00, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → ICT 15:00 SEA 16:42 21% 4% 1.3% 86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 3h 55m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 10h 44m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Denver DEN 08:08 → SEA 10:17UA 1348 6h 09m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 09m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → SEA 13:54DL 629 10h 11m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 6h 24m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:54 → MSP 17:47DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 54m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:21AA 5104 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SEA 10:50AA 767 6h 54m 94% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON